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Healthcare modeling — hospitalization and long-term care costs on your portfolio

Model a serious 35-day hospital stay and stepped-up custodial care in your final years — state-adjusted costs, your coverage choices, and when each happens in retirement — and see the combined hit to your portfolio.

Your retirement

65
95
3.5%

Location

Costs vary a lot by region. This applies a relative cost index for Ohio (0.92× the national average) to both the hospitalization and long-term care estimates below — an approximation, not actual billed rates.

Hospitalization: when it happens

Age 70

At age 70 you're Medicare-eligible.

Hospitalization: coverage

Medigap Plan G covers the Part A deductible and coinsurance and all Part B coinsurance — you owe only the annual Part B deductible.

Long-term care

Age 91–95

Medicare does not cover custodial long-term care. See the Medicaid guide for what happens if care exhausts your assets.

Covers the full 4-year window, though the daily benefit doesn't fully keep pace with nursing-home rates.

Estimated premium: $3,417/year, paid from age 65 until care begins (26 years, $88,830 total)

Load from calculator

Pull your retirement age, plan horizon, portfolio, spending, income, real return, and state straight from the retirement calculator. The starting balance is the “Begin balance” (year 1) from that plan's Annual portfolio withdrawal card — its actual projected balance at retirement.

Cost of the hospitalization in Ohio

Total billed cost
$144,900
Your out-of-pocket
$257
Covered by insurance
$144,643
Share of portfolio
0.0%
PhaseDaysBilled cost
ER admission
Emergency evaluation and workup leading to inpatient admission.
1$3,220
ICU
Intensive care — critical, closely monitored care.
7$70,840
Recovery / monitoring
Step-down floor — stabilized but still inpatient.
14$41,216
Inpatient rehab
Rehab facility — regaining function before discharge.
14$29,624
Total (35 inpatient days)35$144,900

Cost of long-term care in Ohio

Total billed cost
$353,280
ages 91–95
Insurance paid
$241,620
Premiums paid
$88,830
Total cost to your portfolio
$200,490
Share of portfolio
22.1%
YearCare levelBilledInsuranceOut-of-pocket
1 (age 91)Assisted living$60,720$49,500$11,220
2 (age 92)Assisted living$60,720$60,720$0
3 (age 93)Nursing home (skilled nursing)$115,920$65,700$50,220
4 (age 94)Nursing home (skilled nursing)$115,920$65,700$50,220
Total (4 years)$353,280$241,620$111,660

Portfolio balance through retirement

Balances in today's dollars. The amber marker is age 70 (hospitalization); the violet marker is age 91 (long-term care begins). Both hit the “with modeled costs” line — the hospitalization as a one-time cost of $257, long-term care as premiums followed by 4 years of care costing $200,490 in total.

Outcome

No costs
$883,333
at age 95
With modeled costs
$596,437
at age 95
Combined impact
−$286,896
at age 95, vs. no costs

Costs are illustrative national averages adjusted by an approximate state cost index — actual bills vary enormously by hospital, facility, plan, and severity. Hospitalization out-of-pocket estimates use 2025 Medicare figures (Part A deductible $1,676, Part B deductible $257, 20% Part B coinsurance, Medicare Advantage $9,350 in-network out-of-pocket cap) and approximate figures for ACA and employer-plan out-of-pocket maximums; uninsured self-pay does not account for hospital charity-care or negotiated discounts. Long-term care premiums are age-rated estimates for illustrative policy tiers, assumed paid every year from retirement until care begins, with no waiver during a claim, no inflation rider, and a 90-day elimination period in the first year of care; real policies vary widely in price and terms based on health, sex, and state. The portfolio projection assumes a steady real return every year and does not model taxes or ongoing premiums for the hospitalization coverage itself. For educational purposes only — not financial, tax, or medical advice.